Saturday, August 13, 2011

Just Another Jose Constanza/Jason Heyward Post

Hot streaks have little to no predictive value. If a player's career minor league numbers are based largely on empty batting averages and luck, it would be smart to assume a small-sample hot streak is not sustainable. Somebody please pound this into some heads for me.

Constanza's .408 average isn't sustainable, of course, but a .429 BABIP and 3.8 BB% are outrageous. Braves fans, and more importantly Fredi Gonzalez, are blinded by 53 plate appearances from a guy who has walked over 10% in a full season just twice as a professional while recording the majority of his hits by slap bunts and infield singles.

Constanza's career OPS in the minors is .720. Jason Heyward's is .897. A couple weeks ago, Heyward's OPS this season was the same as Constanza's career minor league mark. What does this tell you? Heyward should not be sitting because a hitter with the minor league numbers of a fourth outfielder has a hot streak over 53 plate appearances.

Those that continue to preach that the Braves should ride out Constanza's hot streak fail to realize that his numbers indicate there is no reason for the streak to continue past yesterday. They are also the ones to say they still believe Heyward is the long-term answer in right field. If that is the case, shouldn't he be in the lineup? Has he not proven capable of this yet?

There is nothing that hasn't already been said in regards to the Constanza/Heyward debate, and I'm doing nothing more than repeating what the more intelligent Braves bloggers have already written. But after seeing the results of this, I felt it necessary to say something. There is no reason at all that Heyward should be sitting.

1 comment:

  1. That's the heat of a pennant's probably good to stick with the hot bat, but what long-term psychological damage could it do to Heyward...remember this still a young man. The problem is this is the first time Heyward has failed..Hopefully he can learn from his and help the Braves during the stretch run!! We need him to win the World Series