2011 HR/FB rates:
(100+ IP)
1. Tommy Hanson - 12.5%
2. Derek Lowe - 10.2
3. Brandon Beachy - 9.8
4. Tim Hudson - 8.7
5. Jair Jurrjens - 8
We're talking small samples in the cases of Hanson, Beachy and Jurrjens because of injuries and innings limits, but it's interesting nonetheless. Hanson's HR/FB in his 202-inning season in 2010 was 5.8%, and a 3.31 ERA compared to a 3.87 xFIP says the number was a bit low. I would tend to agree with that, but it certainly didn't spell out such an increase as we saw in his 130 innings last season.
Hanson is a more balanced pitcher than I anticipated coming into the majors. His fly ball and groundball tendencies have stuck hard to approximately 40% each through 460 innings. So a high home run rate isn't necessarily as much of a given as previously thought. However, an increase from 5.8% to 12.5% is odd regardless, and last season's should be taken with a grain of salt.
More so, injuries likely had some effect on the increase in home runs per fly balls for Hanson, as he pitched through shoulder issues and saw a dip in fastball velocity. I always hate to get into things such as this, though, and try to refrain from speculating on injury effects.
A healthy Hanson should fare much better in the home runs allowed category, and I would peg him somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-8%. It's something the Braves really need this year.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Giving Kenshin Kawakami His Due
Word is former Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami is headed back to Japan. I for one would like to give the Braves' first and only Japanese signing his due.
Kawakami's 3.86 ERA in his rookie season of 2009 wasn't quite the best indication of his talent, as his 4.21 FIP and 4.55 xFIP showed. He didn't have any one strength; he didn't strike out a ton of batters, his walk rate was middle ground, and his home run rate was average at best.
But that is what made Kawakami who he was. He was an average starter for a National League team, and you could count on independent numbers to be anywhere from 4 to 4.5. Livan Hernandez made a career out of it. Barry Zito is making a ton of money right now doing it. For some reason, Aaron Harang was the leader of a rotation with numbers like that.
It wasn't Kawakami's fault he made $6 million a year to put up average numbers. He took the contract the Braves offered, and it's Atlanta's fault for offering so much to a pitcher with only average stuff. However, he was basically termed an outcast for it, getting placed in the bullpen and not seeing the light of day for weeks at the time. And it finally got bad enough to send him not to Triple-A Gwinnett, but Double-A Mississippi, where he toiled in obscurity. His numbers there make me believe he gave up after struggling from injury, and I wouldn't have blamed him one bit.
Kawakami had every right to blast the front office for how he was treated, but he never did. He did what he does, tossing average stuff and producing average numbers, and continued to do so in his second season despite an inflated ERA. But the Braves apparently wanted nothing to do with him despite no changes from his rookie year except the ERA, and they used it as an excuse to put him in a hole until his contract expired.
For the Braves' credit, it seems like they did make the effort to trade him and give him another opportunity. Several Japanese teams reportedly had interest in him, but the contract proved to be a wall in negotiations. I don't see this as an excuse to bury him in the organization, though.
If Kawakami was looking at only returning to Japan and not seeking another Major League job via free agency this winter, I wouldn't blame him. He probably wouldn't get more than a spring invite, and you know he doesn't want to return to the minors.
So as a Braves fan, I would like to say thanks to KK for what he gave the team in his limited time in Atlanta. May he find more success back in Japan.
Kawakami's 3.86 ERA in his rookie season of 2009 wasn't quite the best indication of his talent, as his 4.21 FIP and 4.55 xFIP showed. He didn't have any one strength; he didn't strike out a ton of batters, his walk rate was middle ground, and his home run rate was average at best.
But that is what made Kawakami who he was. He was an average starter for a National League team, and you could count on independent numbers to be anywhere from 4 to 4.5. Livan Hernandez made a career out of it. Barry Zito is making a ton of money right now doing it. For some reason, Aaron Harang was the leader of a rotation with numbers like that.
It wasn't Kawakami's fault he made $6 million a year to put up average numbers. He took the contract the Braves offered, and it's Atlanta's fault for offering so much to a pitcher with only average stuff. However, he was basically termed an outcast for it, getting placed in the bullpen and not seeing the light of day for weeks at the time. And it finally got bad enough to send him not to Triple-A Gwinnett, but Double-A Mississippi, where he toiled in obscurity. His numbers there make me believe he gave up after struggling from injury, and I wouldn't have blamed him one bit.
Kawakami had every right to blast the front office for how he was treated, but he never did. He did what he does, tossing average stuff and producing average numbers, and continued to do so in his second season despite an inflated ERA. But the Braves apparently wanted nothing to do with him despite no changes from his rookie year except the ERA, and they used it as an excuse to put him in a hole until his contract expired.
For the Braves' credit, it seems like they did make the effort to trade him and give him another opportunity. Several Japanese teams reportedly had interest in him, but the contract proved to be a wall in negotiations. I don't see this as an excuse to bury him in the organization, though.
If Kawakami was looking at only returning to Japan and not seeking another Major League job via free agency this winter, I wouldn't blame him. He probably wouldn't get more than a spring invite, and you know he doesn't want to return to the minors.
So as a Braves fan, I would like to say thanks to KK for what he gave the team in his limited time in Atlanta. May he find more success back in Japan.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
McGuirk On Payroll, Ownership, TV Deal
Nothing ever happens in Braves world, so what we get is payroll and TV deal talk, all of which is pretty much never a good thing. Tim Tucker of the AJC gives us the details in an interview with Terry McGuirk.
He said the Braves have “a little over $90 million right now” committed toward 2012 salaries and will reach the previously undisclosed $94 million budget, up slightly from last year, with acquisitions before or during the season.
“That being said, we inherited a deal that was done under [previous owner Turner Broadcasting/Time Warner] a little over four years ago, before the sale, that lasts out through 25 years. So there is no opportunity for a different deal than the one we have. Every single set of games on the different networks that we are seen on [Fox Sports South, SportSouth and Peachtree TV] are all 25-year deals or thereabouts.”
McGuirk said the deals call for “cost-of-living type increases” each year, but contain no options for renegotiation.
“They were at-market deals when they were done, but the market has changed,” he said. “We will have to look elsewhere for the increases that we will need in revenue to continue to build this franchise. It’s what the owners at the time decided to do, so we have to live with it. ... It’s nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s not going to be these newer deals where there is cash up front.”
Asked if the TV contracts will be a competitive disadvantage for the Braves over the next two decades, McGuirk said: “Let’s just say it won’t be an advantage.”
Basically, the Braves are stuck in no-man's land with their payroll because of little cash flow, and it will only get worse over time with their current TV deal, which will soon become obsolete in Major League Baseball.
This doesn't mean the Braves will become a cellar dweller down the road, but it does mean the front office's room for error will grow smaller and smaller. Player development will become more crucial by the year, and free agency will become an afterthought (it's basically to that point already).
As long as the Braves continue to churn out young talent at a fairly consistent rate, I don't see this as having to be depressing news, though. Keep talent flowing through the system and give yourself a shot at the playoffs every year. Teams are making a living following this way of thinking.
He said the Braves have “a little over $90 million right now” committed toward 2012 salaries and will reach the previously undisclosed $94 million budget, up slightly from last year, with acquisitions before or during the season.
“That being said, we inherited a deal that was done under [previous owner Turner Broadcasting/Time Warner] a little over four years ago, before the sale, that lasts out through 25 years. So there is no opportunity for a different deal than the one we have. Every single set of games on the different networks that we are seen on [Fox Sports South, SportSouth and Peachtree TV] are all 25-year deals or thereabouts.”
McGuirk said the deals call for “cost-of-living type increases” each year, but contain no options for renegotiation.
“They were at-market deals when they were done, but the market has changed,” he said. “We will have to look elsewhere for the increases that we will need in revenue to continue to build this franchise. It’s what the owners at the time decided to do, so we have to live with it. ... It’s nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s not going to be these newer deals where there is cash up front.”
Asked if the TV contracts will be a competitive disadvantage for the Braves over the next two decades, McGuirk said: “Let’s just say it won’t be an advantage.”
Basically, the Braves are stuck in no-man's land with their payroll because of little cash flow, and it will only get worse over time with their current TV deal, which will soon become obsolete in Major League Baseball.
This doesn't mean the Braves will become a cellar dweller down the road, but it does mean the front office's room for error will grow smaller and smaller. Player development will become more crucial by the year, and free agency will become an afterthought (it's basically to that point already).
As long as the Braves continue to churn out young talent at a fairly consistent rate, I don't see this as having to be depressing news, though. Keep talent flowing through the system and give yourself a shot at the playoffs every year. Teams are making a living following this way of thinking.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Jack Wilson Returns On One-Year Deal; Martin Prado Avoids Arb
The Braves brought back reserve shortstop Jack Wilson on a one-year deal worth $1 million, with $500,000 in possible incentives. Not much to say here, but this might be the best part of the deal:
Long before the Braves called, Wilson was already providing that. After the Braves lost to the Phillies to end the season – the one and only night of Pastornicky’s call-up – Wilson and Pastornicky got to talking about defense. Wilson invited Pastornicky to come to his home in Thousand Oaks, Calif. to work out in his backyard infield, which they plan to do early next month.
“When I first came up, I had Pat Meares who took me under his wing,” said Wilson, who broke in with the Pirates. “He’d been a major league shortstop for nine or 10 years. Now you have an opportunity to do what somebody did for you. Tyler seems like a great kid, and I’m looking forward to helping him out any way I can.”
The Braves wanted a backup shortstop capable of providing solid defense while showing Tyler Pastornicky a thing or two, and who better than the guy they traded for the previous season? Wilson can still provide solid defense in a pinch, and he seems willing to take on the role of mentor for the rookie.
The Braves also re-signed Martin Prado to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, earning him an average salary for the production. This doesn't affect trade possibilities, but the chances of either Prado or Jair Jurrjens, or both, to be traded before spring seem less likely by the day. Frank Wren acknowledged just that. At this point, unless a team flies in at the last minute, I don't see them going anywhere.
The remaining arb-eligible Braves are Jurrjens, Michael Bourn and Eric O'Flaherty.
Long before the Braves called, Wilson was already providing that. After the Braves lost to the Phillies to end the season – the one and only night of Pastornicky’s call-up – Wilson and Pastornicky got to talking about defense. Wilson invited Pastornicky to come to his home in Thousand Oaks, Calif. to work out in his backyard infield, which they plan to do early next month.
“When I first came up, I had Pat Meares who took me under his wing,” said Wilson, who broke in with the Pirates. “He’d been a major league shortstop for nine or 10 years. Now you have an opportunity to do what somebody did for you. Tyler seems like a great kid, and I’m looking forward to helping him out any way I can.”
The Braves wanted a backup shortstop capable of providing solid defense while showing Tyler Pastornicky a thing or two, and who better than the guy they traded for the previous season? Wilson can still provide solid defense in a pinch, and he seems willing to take on the role of mentor for the rookie.
The Braves also re-signed Martin Prado to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, earning him an average salary for the production. This doesn't affect trade possibilities, but the chances of either Prado or Jair Jurrjens, or both, to be traded before spring seem less likely by the day. Frank Wren acknowledged just that. At this point, unless a team flies in at the last minute, I don't see them going anywhere.
The remaining arb-eligible Braves are Jurrjens, Michael Bourn and Eric O'Flaherty.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
The "Need" For Peter Moylan
Pardon me while I'm a grinch for a minute.
Bill Shanks wrote this on Peter Moylan today, saying the Braves "need" to bring him back for the good of the team. If you read it, you know it's a lovey dovey piece with no analysis to back up the claim, so I'm not exactly targeting Shanks' column. I am, however, targeting the belief that the Braves have to bring Moylan back.
First of all, Moylan is a middle reliever, and middle relievers are fungible. Even in a great season, they are just above replacement level and can be interchanged much more than some realize. Moylan was a solid arm in the seventh and eighth innings a few seasons ago, but even then he could have been swapped out for another relief arm with relative ease.
Moylan has had two good seasons and a decent one. He threw a laughable 90 innings in 2007 to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 3.97 FIP, but what made that season was an 8.6 BB%, which would prove to be his best. Ever since, it's obvious the 90-inning season set him back. He missed almost all of 2008 with Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2009 and posted a 2.84 ERA and 2.95 FIP in 73 innings, but his walk rate jumped to 11.3%. His innings decreased to 63.2 in 2010, and his walk rate increased again to 13.7% with a 4.30 FIP. Finally, injuries derailed his 2011 season, and a shoulder surgery leaves question marks this offseason. Non-tendering him after shoulder surgery was common sense, and I'm sure the Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back to Atlanta.
But that's exactly the point. The Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back. That doesn't sound like they "need" him. They don't. No team in Major League Baseball "needs" a 33-year-old middle reliever coming off shoulder surgery with increasing walk rates and decreasing innings pitched.
This is the pure statistical point of view, of course. Moylan is by all accounts a great teammate and I'm sure he keeps the clubhouse loose. But it all comes down to how much you value such a thing. Braves fans will want to keep him around because he's funny and is easy to root for. I'm sure Braves players want to keep him around because he's probably a good teammate. Should Frank Wren want to keep him around? There's really no need.
I'm not calling for Moylan to be barred from Turner Field. I'm just saying there are several relievers capable of holding a major league relief spot at or above Moylan's value already in the Braves system at league minimum. It would make sense to turn to these arms and save the few dollars.
Bill Shanks wrote this on Peter Moylan today, saying the Braves "need" to bring him back for the good of the team. If you read it, you know it's a lovey dovey piece with no analysis to back up the claim, so I'm not exactly targeting Shanks' column. I am, however, targeting the belief that the Braves have to bring Moylan back.
First of all, Moylan is a middle reliever, and middle relievers are fungible. Even in a great season, they are just above replacement level and can be interchanged much more than some realize. Moylan was a solid arm in the seventh and eighth innings a few seasons ago, but even then he could have been swapped out for another relief arm with relative ease.
Moylan has had two good seasons and a decent one. He threw a laughable 90 innings in 2007 to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 3.97 FIP, but what made that season was an 8.6 BB%, which would prove to be his best. Ever since, it's obvious the 90-inning season set him back. He missed almost all of 2008 with Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2009 and posted a 2.84 ERA and 2.95 FIP in 73 innings, but his walk rate jumped to 11.3%. His innings decreased to 63.2 in 2010, and his walk rate increased again to 13.7% with a 4.30 FIP. Finally, injuries derailed his 2011 season, and a shoulder surgery leaves question marks this offseason. Non-tendering him after shoulder surgery was common sense, and I'm sure the Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back to Atlanta.
But that's exactly the point. The Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back. That doesn't sound like they "need" him. They don't. No team in Major League Baseball "needs" a 33-year-old middle reliever coming off shoulder surgery with increasing walk rates and decreasing innings pitched.
This is the pure statistical point of view, of course. Moylan is by all accounts a great teammate and I'm sure he keeps the clubhouse loose. But it all comes down to how much you value such a thing. Braves fans will want to keep him around because he's funny and is easy to root for. I'm sure Braves players want to keep him around because he's probably a good teammate. Should Frank Wren want to keep him around? There's really no need.
I'm not calling for Moylan to be barred from Turner Field. I'm just saying there are several relievers capable of holding a major league relief spot at or above Moylan's value already in the Braves system at league minimum. It would make sense to turn to these arms and save the few dollars.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Farewell, Brooks Conrad
The Brooks Conrad era officially ended today with the Brewers' addition of Conrad on a minor league deal, so says Ken Rosenthal.
Conrad was non-tendered by the Braves back on Dec. 13, and it was said at the time that they wanted to see if he could get himself a better deal than what Atlanta could offer, which was a minor league deal with no real shot at the big league club for at least most of the season. The Braves are going in a different direction with their bench this year, meaning they want a defense-first utility infielder capable of playing a solid shortstop. Conrad is none of those things.
However, I'm not sure his chances are much greater in Milwaukee. Dude named Taylor Green stands to be in his way as a 3B/2B backup. Green is a Top 5 Brewers prospect who mashed at Triple-A last season at age 24 to the tune of .336/.413/.583 with a .248 ISO, .428 wOBA and 11.3 BB%. If that doesn't earn you a major league spot at 25 years old, nothing will. You would think the Brewers will give Green a shot before Conrad, and considering Brooks was probably not signed for his middle infield defense, it's probably his only shot. We'll see how it plays out.
It's been noted more than once that Conrad is someone you can truly root for, and I wish him the best in the Brewers organization. He handled the 2010 NLDS situation so well despite so many jackasses constantly in his ear. I will forever be ashamed of how Braves fans treated him during and after that game. But Braves fans have never been known as the brightest of the bunch, and I am a Braves fan.
Good luck to Brooks.
Conrad was non-tendered by the Braves back on Dec. 13, and it was said at the time that they wanted to see if he could get himself a better deal than what Atlanta could offer, which was a minor league deal with no real shot at the big league club for at least most of the season. The Braves are going in a different direction with their bench this year, meaning they want a defense-first utility infielder capable of playing a solid shortstop. Conrad is none of those things.
However, I'm not sure his chances are much greater in Milwaukee. Dude named Taylor Green stands to be in his way as a 3B/2B backup. Green is a Top 5 Brewers prospect who mashed at Triple-A last season at age 24 to the tune of .336/.413/.583 with a .248 ISO, .428 wOBA and 11.3 BB%. If that doesn't earn you a major league spot at 25 years old, nothing will. You would think the Brewers will give Green a shot before Conrad, and considering Brooks was probably not signed for his middle infield defense, it's probably his only shot. We'll see how it plays out.
It's been noted more than once that Conrad is someone you can truly root for, and I wish him the best in the Brewers organization. He handled the 2010 NLDS situation so well despite so many jackasses constantly in his ear. I will forever be ashamed of how Braves fans treated him during and after that game. But Braves fans have never been known as the brightest of the bunch, and I am a Braves fan.
Good luck to Brooks.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Stephen Marek Finds Work, Among Braves News
A couple of Braves-related tidbits to keep you occupied during the baseball depression that is winter.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweets minor leaguer Marcus Lemon was released by the Braves today. Lemon's name has always caused a double-take or two because he is the son of Chet Lemon, who hit .273 with 215 home runs in 16 seasons between the White Sox and Tigers. Chet led the league in doubles with 44 as part of a .318/.391/.496 season in 1979, and he also led the league in HBP four times. He was also a three-time All-Star.
As for Marcus, he hasn't made it past AA yet, splitting time between A+ Lynchburg and AA Mississippi for the Braves in 2011, hitting .254/.303/.333 with 15 doubles in 372 plate appearances. He got a million bucks out of the Rangers as a fourth-round pick in 2006, so that certainly worked out well for them.
Former Braves relief prospect Stephen Marek signed with the Blue Jays, according to Goldstein. Marek was a reliever many hoped would eventually get a shot in the Atlanta bullpen, but for some reason he continued to get passed over for lesser relievers at higher costs, such as Scott Proctor (shudder). I had him ranked No. 17 on my Braves prospect list before last season, writing that he should be the first to get a call up. It never materialized, and he underwent Tommy John surgery, limiting him to just 10.2 innings.
It's the type of move you would expect from organizations like Toronto and Tampa Bay, looking to get the most out of relievers for the least amount. (Like Fernando Rodney to the Rays.)
Also, the Cubs signed utilityman Joe Mather, according to Goldstein. Yay.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweets minor leaguer Marcus Lemon was released by the Braves today. Lemon's name has always caused a double-take or two because he is the son of Chet Lemon, who hit .273 with 215 home runs in 16 seasons between the White Sox and Tigers. Chet led the league in doubles with 44 as part of a .318/.391/.496 season in 1979, and he also led the league in HBP four times. He was also a three-time All-Star.
As for Marcus, he hasn't made it past AA yet, splitting time between A+ Lynchburg and AA Mississippi for the Braves in 2011, hitting .254/.303/.333 with 15 doubles in 372 plate appearances. He got a million bucks out of the Rangers as a fourth-round pick in 2006, so that certainly worked out well for them.
Former Braves relief prospect Stephen Marek signed with the Blue Jays, according to Goldstein. Marek was a reliever many hoped would eventually get a shot in the Atlanta bullpen, but for some reason he continued to get passed over for lesser relievers at higher costs, such as Scott Proctor (shudder). I had him ranked No. 17 on my Braves prospect list before last season, writing that he should be the first to get a call up. It never materialized, and he underwent Tommy John surgery, limiting him to just 10.2 innings.
It's the type of move you would expect from organizations like Toronto and Tampa Bay, looking to get the most out of relievers for the least amount. (Like Fernando Rodney to the Rays.)
Also, the Cubs signed utilityman Joe Mather, according to Goldstein. Yay.
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