Nothing ever happens in Braves world, so what we get is payroll and TV deal talk, all of which is pretty much never a good thing. Tim Tucker of the AJC gives us the details in an interview with Terry McGuirk.
He said the Braves have “a little over $90 million right now” committed toward 2012 salaries and will reach the previously undisclosed $94 million budget, up slightly from last year, with acquisitions before or during the season.
“That being said, we inherited a deal that was done under [previous owner Turner Broadcasting/Time Warner] a little over four years ago, before the sale, that lasts out through 25 years. So there is no opportunity for a different deal than the one we have. Every single set of games on the different networks that we are seen on [Fox Sports South, SportSouth and Peachtree TV] are all 25-year deals or thereabouts.”
McGuirk said the deals call for “cost-of-living type increases” each year, but contain no options for renegotiation.
“They were at-market deals when they were done, but the market has changed,” he said. “We will have to look elsewhere for the increases that we will need in revenue to continue to build this franchise. It’s what the owners at the time decided to do, so we have to live with it. ... It’s nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s not going to be these newer deals where there is cash up front.”
Asked if the TV contracts will be a competitive disadvantage for the Braves over the next two decades, McGuirk said: “Let’s just say it won’t be an advantage.”
Basically, the Braves are stuck in no-man's land with their payroll because of little cash flow, and it will only get worse over time with their current TV deal, which will soon become obsolete in Major League Baseball.
This doesn't mean the Braves will become a cellar dweller down the road, but it does mean the front office's room for error will grow smaller and smaller. Player development will become more crucial by the year, and free agency will become an afterthought (it's basically to that point already).
As long as the Braves continue to churn out young talent at a fairly consistent rate, I don't see this as having to be depressing news, though. Keep talent flowing through the system and give yourself a shot at the playoffs every year. Teams are making a living following this way of thinking.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Jack Wilson Returns On One-Year Deal; Martin Prado Avoids Arb
The Braves brought back reserve shortstop Jack Wilson on a one-year deal worth $1 million, with $500,000 in possible incentives. Not much to say here, but this might be the best part of the deal:
Long before the Braves called, Wilson was already providing that. After the Braves lost to the Phillies to end the season – the one and only night of Pastornicky’s call-up – Wilson and Pastornicky got to talking about defense. Wilson invited Pastornicky to come to his home in Thousand Oaks, Calif. to work out in his backyard infield, which they plan to do early next month.
“When I first came up, I had Pat Meares who took me under his wing,” said Wilson, who broke in with the Pirates. “He’d been a major league shortstop for nine or 10 years. Now you have an opportunity to do what somebody did for you. Tyler seems like a great kid, and I’m looking forward to helping him out any way I can.”
The Braves wanted a backup shortstop capable of providing solid defense while showing Tyler Pastornicky a thing or two, and who better than the guy they traded for the previous season? Wilson can still provide solid defense in a pinch, and he seems willing to take on the role of mentor for the rookie.
The Braves also re-signed Martin Prado to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, earning him an average salary for the production. This doesn't affect trade possibilities, but the chances of either Prado or Jair Jurrjens, or both, to be traded before spring seem less likely by the day. Frank Wren acknowledged just that. At this point, unless a team flies in at the last minute, I don't see them going anywhere.
The remaining arb-eligible Braves are Jurrjens, Michael Bourn and Eric O'Flaherty.
Long before the Braves called, Wilson was already providing that. After the Braves lost to the Phillies to end the season – the one and only night of Pastornicky’s call-up – Wilson and Pastornicky got to talking about defense. Wilson invited Pastornicky to come to his home in Thousand Oaks, Calif. to work out in his backyard infield, which they plan to do early next month.
“When I first came up, I had Pat Meares who took me under his wing,” said Wilson, who broke in with the Pirates. “He’d been a major league shortstop for nine or 10 years. Now you have an opportunity to do what somebody did for you. Tyler seems like a great kid, and I’m looking forward to helping him out any way I can.”
The Braves wanted a backup shortstop capable of providing solid defense while showing Tyler Pastornicky a thing or two, and who better than the guy they traded for the previous season? Wilson can still provide solid defense in a pinch, and he seems willing to take on the role of mentor for the rookie.
The Braves also re-signed Martin Prado to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, earning him an average salary for the production. This doesn't affect trade possibilities, but the chances of either Prado or Jair Jurrjens, or both, to be traded before spring seem less likely by the day. Frank Wren acknowledged just that. At this point, unless a team flies in at the last minute, I don't see them going anywhere.
The remaining arb-eligible Braves are Jurrjens, Michael Bourn and Eric O'Flaherty.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
The "Need" For Peter Moylan
Pardon me while I'm a grinch for a minute.
Bill Shanks wrote this on Peter Moylan today, saying the Braves "need" to bring him back for the good of the team. If you read it, you know it's a lovey dovey piece with no analysis to back up the claim, so I'm not exactly targeting Shanks' column. I am, however, targeting the belief that the Braves have to bring Moylan back.
First of all, Moylan is a middle reliever, and middle relievers are fungible. Even in a great season, they are just above replacement level and can be interchanged much more than some realize. Moylan was a solid arm in the seventh and eighth innings a few seasons ago, but even then he could have been swapped out for another relief arm with relative ease.
Moylan has had two good seasons and a decent one. He threw a laughable 90 innings in 2007 to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 3.97 FIP, but what made that season was an 8.6 BB%, which would prove to be his best. Ever since, it's obvious the 90-inning season set him back. He missed almost all of 2008 with Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2009 and posted a 2.84 ERA and 2.95 FIP in 73 innings, but his walk rate jumped to 11.3%. His innings decreased to 63.2 in 2010, and his walk rate increased again to 13.7% with a 4.30 FIP. Finally, injuries derailed his 2011 season, and a shoulder surgery leaves question marks this offseason. Non-tendering him after shoulder surgery was common sense, and I'm sure the Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back to Atlanta.
But that's exactly the point. The Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back. That doesn't sound like they "need" him. They don't. No team in Major League Baseball "needs" a 33-year-old middle reliever coming off shoulder surgery with increasing walk rates and decreasing innings pitched.
This is the pure statistical point of view, of course. Moylan is by all accounts a great teammate and I'm sure he keeps the clubhouse loose. But it all comes down to how much you value such a thing. Braves fans will want to keep him around because he's funny and is easy to root for. I'm sure Braves players want to keep him around because he's probably a good teammate. Should Frank Wren want to keep him around? There's really no need.
I'm not calling for Moylan to be barred from Turner Field. I'm just saying there are several relievers capable of holding a major league relief spot at or above Moylan's value already in the Braves system at league minimum. It would make sense to turn to these arms and save the few dollars.
Bill Shanks wrote this on Peter Moylan today, saying the Braves "need" to bring him back for the good of the team. If you read it, you know it's a lovey dovey piece with no analysis to back up the claim, so I'm not exactly targeting Shanks' column. I am, however, targeting the belief that the Braves have to bring Moylan back.
First of all, Moylan is a middle reliever, and middle relievers are fungible. Even in a great season, they are just above replacement level and can be interchanged much more than some realize. Moylan was a solid arm in the seventh and eighth innings a few seasons ago, but even then he could have been swapped out for another relief arm with relative ease.
Moylan has had two good seasons and a decent one. He threw a laughable 90 innings in 2007 to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 3.97 FIP, but what made that season was an 8.6 BB%, which would prove to be his best. Ever since, it's obvious the 90-inning season set him back. He missed almost all of 2008 with Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2009 and posted a 2.84 ERA and 2.95 FIP in 73 innings, but his walk rate jumped to 11.3%. His innings decreased to 63.2 in 2010, and his walk rate increased again to 13.7% with a 4.30 FIP. Finally, injuries derailed his 2011 season, and a shoulder surgery leaves question marks this offseason. Non-tendering him after shoulder surgery was common sense, and I'm sure the Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back to Atlanta.
But that's exactly the point. The Braves are hoping he'll take the bare minimum to come back. That doesn't sound like they "need" him. They don't. No team in Major League Baseball "needs" a 33-year-old middle reliever coming off shoulder surgery with increasing walk rates and decreasing innings pitched.
This is the pure statistical point of view, of course. Moylan is by all accounts a great teammate and I'm sure he keeps the clubhouse loose. But it all comes down to how much you value such a thing. Braves fans will want to keep him around because he's funny and is easy to root for. I'm sure Braves players want to keep him around because he's probably a good teammate. Should Frank Wren want to keep him around? There's really no need.
I'm not calling for Moylan to be barred from Turner Field. I'm just saying there are several relievers capable of holding a major league relief spot at or above Moylan's value already in the Braves system at league minimum. It would make sense to turn to these arms and save the few dollars.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Farewell, Brooks Conrad
The Brooks Conrad era officially ended today with the Brewers' addition of Conrad on a minor league deal, so says Ken Rosenthal.
Conrad was non-tendered by the Braves back on Dec. 13, and it was said at the time that they wanted to see if he could get himself a better deal than what Atlanta could offer, which was a minor league deal with no real shot at the big league club for at least most of the season. The Braves are going in a different direction with their bench this year, meaning they want a defense-first utility infielder capable of playing a solid shortstop. Conrad is none of those things.
However, I'm not sure his chances are much greater in Milwaukee. Dude named Taylor Green stands to be in his way as a 3B/2B backup. Green is a Top 5 Brewers prospect who mashed at Triple-A last season at age 24 to the tune of .336/.413/.583 with a .248 ISO, .428 wOBA and 11.3 BB%. If that doesn't earn you a major league spot at 25 years old, nothing will. You would think the Brewers will give Green a shot before Conrad, and considering Brooks was probably not signed for his middle infield defense, it's probably his only shot. We'll see how it plays out.
It's been noted more than once that Conrad is someone you can truly root for, and I wish him the best in the Brewers organization. He handled the 2010 NLDS situation so well despite so many jackasses constantly in his ear. I will forever be ashamed of how Braves fans treated him during and after that game. But Braves fans have never been known as the brightest of the bunch, and I am a Braves fan.
Good luck to Brooks.
Conrad was non-tendered by the Braves back on Dec. 13, and it was said at the time that they wanted to see if he could get himself a better deal than what Atlanta could offer, which was a minor league deal with no real shot at the big league club for at least most of the season. The Braves are going in a different direction with their bench this year, meaning they want a defense-first utility infielder capable of playing a solid shortstop. Conrad is none of those things.
However, I'm not sure his chances are much greater in Milwaukee. Dude named Taylor Green stands to be in his way as a 3B/2B backup. Green is a Top 5 Brewers prospect who mashed at Triple-A last season at age 24 to the tune of .336/.413/.583 with a .248 ISO, .428 wOBA and 11.3 BB%. If that doesn't earn you a major league spot at 25 years old, nothing will. You would think the Brewers will give Green a shot before Conrad, and considering Brooks was probably not signed for his middle infield defense, it's probably his only shot. We'll see how it plays out.
It's been noted more than once that Conrad is someone you can truly root for, and I wish him the best in the Brewers organization. He handled the 2010 NLDS situation so well despite so many jackasses constantly in his ear. I will forever be ashamed of how Braves fans treated him during and after that game. But Braves fans have never been known as the brightest of the bunch, and I am a Braves fan.
Good luck to Brooks.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Stephen Marek Finds Work, Among Braves News
A couple of Braves-related tidbits to keep you occupied during the baseball depression that is winter.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweets minor leaguer Marcus Lemon was released by the Braves today. Lemon's name has always caused a double-take or two because he is the son of Chet Lemon, who hit .273 with 215 home runs in 16 seasons between the White Sox and Tigers. Chet led the league in doubles with 44 as part of a .318/.391/.496 season in 1979, and he also led the league in HBP four times. He was also a three-time All-Star.
As for Marcus, he hasn't made it past AA yet, splitting time between A+ Lynchburg and AA Mississippi for the Braves in 2011, hitting .254/.303/.333 with 15 doubles in 372 plate appearances. He got a million bucks out of the Rangers as a fourth-round pick in 2006, so that certainly worked out well for them.
Former Braves relief prospect Stephen Marek signed with the Blue Jays, according to Goldstein. Marek was a reliever many hoped would eventually get a shot in the Atlanta bullpen, but for some reason he continued to get passed over for lesser relievers at higher costs, such as Scott Proctor (shudder). I had him ranked No. 17 on my Braves prospect list before last season, writing that he should be the first to get a call up. It never materialized, and he underwent Tommy John surgery, limiting him to just 10.2 innings.
It's the type of move you would expect from organizations like Toronto and Tampa Bay, looking to get the most out of relievers for the least amount. (Like Fernando Rodney to the Rays.)
Also, the Cubs signed utilityman Joe Mather, according to Goldstein. Yay.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweets minor leaguer Marcus Lemon was released by the Braves today. Lemon's name has always caused a double-take or two because he is the son of Chet Lemon, who hit .273 with 215 home runs in 16 seasons between the White Sox and Tigers. Chet led the league in doubles with 44 as part of a .318/.391/.496 season in 1979, and he also led the league in HBP four times. He was also a three-time All-Star.
As for Marcus, he hasn't made it past AA yet, splitting time between A+ Lynchburg and AA Mississippi for the Braves in 2011, hitting .254/.303/.333 with 15 doubles in 372 plate appearances. He got a million bucks out of the Rangers as a fourth-round pick in 2006, so that certainly worked out well for them.
Former Braves relief prospect Stephen Marek signed with the Blue Jays, according to Goldstein. Marek was a reliever many hoped would eventually get a shot in the Atlanta bullpen, but for some reason he continued to get passed over for lesser relievers at higher costs, such as Scott Proctor (shudder). I had him ranked No. 17 on my Braves prospect list before last season, writing that he should be the first to get a call up. It never materialized, and he underwent Tommy John surgery, limiting him to just 10.2 innings.
It's the type of move you would expect from organizations like Toronto and Tampa Bay, looking to get the most out of relievers for the least amount. (Like Fernando Rodney to the Rays.)
Also, the Cubs signed utilityman Joe Mather, according to Goldstein. Yay.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Brandon Hicks, Please
The Braves are apparently interested in Ryan Theriot for some reason. Therefore, I'll waste my time and yours with a Theriot post.
Theriot was owed $3.3 million in 2012, so the Cardinals cut bait earlier this month by non-tendering him in a no-brainer move. With Tyler Greene in the picture, they don't seem to have a need to bring him back, either. So he's currently on the market looking for a major league deal at something around $1 million, I would guess.
Theriot is basically a replacement level utility infielder with the ability to play shortstop. If you believe in defensive metrics, he rates below average across the board for his career at shortstop while slightly above average at second base. Shortstop is the one that matters, though, as Frank Wren has already stated he wants a bench player who can play short. Based on memory, I know his defense at the position leaves much to be desired.
So considering Theriot is replacement level, surely the Braves have someone to fill the role for less than $1 million. Oh yeah, Brandon Hicks.
Hicks walks, showed pop in the minors, and most importantly, he can play shortstop well. He has always been known to have a good glove across the infield; he has the range for up the middle and the arm for third base. He also makes the minimum.
Nearing 26 years old, I'd say it's time to give Hicks a role that's a little more important than designated pinch runner. The Braves have no need to throw $1 million at Theriot when they have a better player already in the system who is younger and cheaper.
Theriot was owed $3.3 million in 2012, so the Cardinals cut bait earlier this month by non-tendering him in a no-brainer move. With Tyler Greene in the picture, they don't seem to have a need to bring him back, either. So he's currently on the market looking for a major league deal at something around $1 million, I would guess.
Theriot is basically a replacement level utility infielder with the ability to play shortstop. If you believe in defensive metrics, he rates below average across the board for his career at shortstop while slightly above average at second base. Shortstop is the one that matters, though, as Frank Wren has already stated he wants a bench player who can play short. Based on memory, I know his defense at the position leaves much to be desired.
So considering Theriot is replacement level, surely the Braves have someone to fill the role for less than $1 million. Oh yeah, Brandon Hicks.
Hicks walks, showed pop in the minors, and most importantly, he can play shortstop well. He has always been known to have a good glove across the infield; he has the range for up the middle and the arm for third base. He also makes the minimum.
Nearing 26 years old, I'd say it's time to give Hicks a role that's a little more important than designated pinch runner. The Braves have no need to throw $1 million at Theriot when they have a better player already in the system who is younger and cheaper.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Washington Nationals: Contenders?
A combination of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez has the potential to be very good. Not to plug my own writing, but... well, OK, I'm plugging my own writing.
"Even so, there’s no denying an fWAR total of 6.7 over 402.2 innings between 2010 and 2011 at ages 24 and 25. Sub-4 FIP’s and solid home run rates mean Gonzalez is doing things right. It’s a nice addition for a Nationals staff that was needing an impact arm to be taken seriously. Stick Gonzalez in there with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, and you have a very solid Top 3 that can compete with almost any Top 3 on its good days."
I won't go into detail about Gonzalez's shortcomings. He walks more batters than anybody else in the game and has done so the past two seasons. He also strikes out a lot of batters and posts sub-4 FIP's below the age of 25, so he's a good pitcher capable of being a No. 2 starter on a contender if he knocks the walks down a tad. If not, he's a No. 3 ceiling.
So a post like this is not out of this world to consider. The Nationals, in a league where it's not impossible to shock the world with a Wild Card berth, could potentially have what it takes to do that. There are two things that could derail their chances, and for one, I plug the same post.
"However, with youth comes questions, and this Top 3 has a few. Gonzalez’s control will always be in question, and he will have days where he can’t find the strike zone, depending on a Nationals offense that hasn’t gotten any better. Health concerns will surround this group, especially considering both Strasburg and Zimmermann have experienced Tommy John surgery. Depth is a concern, as the Nationals will rely on Chien-Ming Wang at the back-end, and if two starters go down at the same time, they will depend on some combination of Ross Detwiler, Matt Purke and Yunesky Maya. Injuries are impossible to predict, and all five starters could throw 180+ innings, but depth is so important to a pitching staff, and I don’t see a ton of it for Washington."
The second problem involves an offense that finished in the lower half of the National League in most categories. They were 11th in fWAR, 12th in wRC+, 11th in wOBA and 12th in OPS. Jayson Werth was the major disappointment for Washington's offense, recording a .323 wOBA after four straight seasons of .380+. Ryan Zimmerman was also held to just a .347 wOBA in only 440 plate appearances due to an abdominal injury. Expecting better seasons from these two middle of the order hitters is obvious.
Along with this is something that continued to appear when looking at team leaderboards: The Braves were either at or worse than the Nationals in the same four categories listed above. Yes, the Braves had among the top pitching staffs in the game last season, which kept them on top of the Wild Card standings for most of the year. But the return of Strasburg and the trade for Gonzalez means a better staff for a Nationals team that ranked in the middle of the pack. The Braves showed it doesn't take a Top 10 offense to contend for a Wild Card. (Of course, much of this depends on individual seasons.)
Any sort of contention for the Nationals hinges on the returns of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Zimmerman and Werth, and the continued development of Gonzalez, so there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding them. However, for the first time since the move from Montreal, this Washington team has a legitimate shot at causing worry for Wild Card contenders. In a league with such parity among Wild Card contenders, it only takes a hot streak or two to make things interesting.
"Even so, there’s no denying an fWAR total of 6.7 over 402.2 innings between 2010 and 2011 at ages 24 and 25. Sub-4 FIP’s and solid home run rates mean Gonzalez is doing things right. It’s a nice addition for a Nationals staff that was needing an impact arm to be taken seriously. Stick Gonzalez in there with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, and you have a very solid Top 3 that can compete with almost any Top 3 on its good days."
I won't go into detail about Gonzalez's shortcomings. He walks more batters than anybody else in the game and has done so the past two seasons. He also strikes out a lot of batters and posts sub-4 FIP's below the age of 25, so he's a good pitcher capable of being a No. 2 starter on a contender if he knocks the walks down a tad. If not, he's a No. 3 ceiling.
So a post like this is not out of this world to consider. The Nationals, in a league where it's not impossible to shock the world with a Wild Card berth, could potentially have what it takes to do that. There are two things that could derail their chances, and for one, I plug the same post.
"However, with youth comes questions, and this Top 3 has a few. Gonzalez’s control will always be in question, and he will have days where he can’t find the strike zone, depending on a Nationals offense that hasn’t gotten any better. Health concerns will surround this group, especially considering both Strasburg and Zimmermann have experienced Tommy John surgery. Depth is a concern, as the Nationals will rely on Chien-Ming Wang at the back-end, and if two starters go down at the same time, they will depend on some combination of Ross Detwiler, Matt Purke and Yunesky Maya. Injuries are impossible to predict, and all five starters could throw 180+ innings, but depth is so important to a pitching staff, and I don’t see a ton of it for Washington."
The second problem involves an offense that finished in the lower half of the National League in most categories. They were 11th in fWAR, 12th in wRC+, 11th in wOBA and 12th in OPS. Jayson Werth was the major disappointment for Washington's offense, recording a .323 wOBA after four straight seasons of .380+. Ryan Zimmerman was also held to just a .347 wOBA in only 440 plate appearances due to an abdominal injury. Expecting better seasons from these two middle of the order hitters is obvious.
Along with this is something that continued to appear when looking at team leaderboards: The Braves were either at or worse than the Nationals in the same four categories listed above. Yes, the Braves had among the top pitching staffs in the game last season, which kept them on top of the Wild Card standings for most of the year. But the return of Strasburg and the trade for Gonzalez means a better staff for a Nationals team that ranked in the middle of the pack. The Braves showed it doesn't take a Top 10 offense to contend for a Wild Card. (Of course, much of this depends on individual seasons.)
Any sort of contention for the Nationals hinges on the returns of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Zimmerman and Werth, and the continued development of Gonzalez, so there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding them. However, for the first time since the move from Montreal, this Washington team has a legitimate shot at causing worry for Wild Card contenders. In a league with such parity among Wild Card contenders, it only takes a hot streak or two to make things interesting.
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