Frank Wren has already made it clear no moves will be made any time soon, instead hoping for bouncebacks in the second half from Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward. And he's right about that. A better Uggla and Heyward down the stretch is like picking up the best bats on the market.
However, there is always the chance of acquiring a bat at the deadline if the price is right. If it means fewer at-bats for Jordan Schafer, I'm all for it (though, it was also made known Schafer could get the nod over Nate McLouth, which is stupid). For argument's sake, let's consider some bats.
Josh Willingham:
Willingham has been linked to the Braves on several occasions, and in the past it would have been a good pickup, but he appears to have forgotten how to walk, posting a career-low 8.3 BB% so far this season. This has resulted in career lows in on-base numbers, including a .309 OBP, and he has a .322 wOBA. A hitter with a career OBP of .362 and BB% of 11.3% doesn't all of a sudden forget how to walk, but he's obviously struggling with it, and he's not the attractive piece from the past few seasons.
Michael Cuddyer:
Cuddyer is perhaps the most attractive option to this point. His .298/.370/.479 line bests his career numbers by a wide margin. He's walking at the third-best rate of his career at 9.4%. A .376 wOBA and 140 wRC+ are both career bests, as well. His batted ball numbers are in line with his career norms aside from an increase in contact percentage, so he appears to just be seeing the ball better this year. He would likely take the most to pry away, but he would provide a solid bat in left with Chipper Jones going down with the knee injury.
Ryan Ludwick:
Ludwick's power isn't being skewed very much by Petco. In fact, he has a better slugging percentage at home. So his career-low ISO of .146 is likely real. This isn't good considering he has a .314 OBP and 8 BB%. Ludwick is an empty bat that probably won't get much better in the second half. The Braves should look elsewhere.
Peter Bourjos:
The promotion of Mike Trout may not mean that much for Bourjos at the moment, but if Trout catches fire, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bourjos dealt. He's not much of a hitter, posting a .272/.323/.397 line with a 5.8 BB%, and his minor league numbers indicate that will probably be the norm, but his value comes from defense, where he's rated as one of the best center fielders in the league, and speed, recording 11 steals - and 50 for Class-A Advanced in 2008. Going after Bourjos is a matter of whether the Braves offense can handle a glove-first outfielder, though he does hit better than Schafer. He may be a better option in the offseason, but I wouldn't oppose it.
The Braves have the pieces to get whoever they want; it's a matter of whether the value is there in return. The market isn't overflowing by any means, so the bats that are available will likely be sold off for more than they're worth. But that's the price you pay for buying at the deadline. Hopefully, the Braves realize this and don't mortgage the future for a mediocre bat.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
OBP? We Don't Need No OBP
Tuesday's lineup against the Rockies went:
1. Jordan Schafer, .288 OBP, .271 wOBA
2. Alex Gonzalez, .270 OBP, .278 wOBA
Gonzalez has a .259 OBP with one walk in the No. 2 hole. His walk rate this season is 4%. His O-Swing% is 15% higher than the MLB average, and he's swinging at 56% of pitches seen. Schafer has only started in the leadoff spot. These are the sixth and seventh worst OBP's in the lineup hitting in the two most important OBP spots in the lineup.
Of course it's ridiculous. We all know that. But I mention it because Gonzalez has hit second three of the past four games, and the one he didn't was due to a scheduled off day for him.
Just saying.
1. Jordan Schafer, .288 OBP, .271 wOBA
2. Alex Gonzalez, .270 OBP, .278 wOBA
Gonzalez has a .259 OBP with one walk in the No. 2 hole. His walk rate this season is 4%. His O-Swing% is 15% higher than the MLB average, and he's swinging at 56% of pitches seen. Schafer has only started in the leadoff spot. These are the sixth and seventh worst OBP's in the lineup hitting in the two most important OBP spots in the lineup.
Of course it's ridiculous. We all know that. But I mention it because Gonzalez has hit second three of the past four games, and the one he didn't was due to a scheduled off day for him.
Just saying.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Brian McCann, Meet Your Prime
It's often said a player hits his prime between ages 26-32. There are always cases of early success or late revivals, but in the end, you tend to see the best years for players falling into that age category. And for hitters, there is a good reason. Power develops at its peak in these years.
A half season is a long way from determining anything, but so far, Brian McCann seems to be entering these years at age 27.
McCann has already posted a 3.2 fWAR, on pace to shatter his previous marks and good for 11th in the National League. That's 11th overall, not for catchers. He is 0.6 wins above the second-best mark for catchers in MLB by Alex Avila and 0.8 wins above the second-best in the National League by Miguel Montero. This while accumulating the second-most games played and most plate appearances by a strict catcher (Carlos Santana plays 1B, as well), meaning more innings logged behind the plate.
McCann's power has returned to 2008 levels, slugging .527 and posting an Isolated Power of .212. Both of these marks are second-best to Avila in MLB, but he leads all catchers in home runs at 14.
However, the big value is coming from his on-base numbers. His .388 OBP matches his career-high set during his rookie campaign in 2006, and his .390 wOBA is second to that year on his career-bests. The big number is a 150 wRC+, which is 13th in all of baseball.
This while posting a second straight season of 10+ BB%. His 10.7% is a little less than the 13.1% last season, but he's maintaining an excellent walk rate while adding more power to last season's totals. This way of combining both and putting it all together is a sign of reaching maturity as a hitter, and McCann seems to be entering that stage. He said it himself during a recent post-game interview when he said he's hitting at a level only reached one other time during his career.
When McCann was first coming up, we all knew what the Braves had. This was no secret among the Braves community, yet it seemed to be a secret held to the Braves community. Even now, McCann's face isn't plastered on video game ads or billboards, and he is still considered underrated by those who don't study baseball. Whether that changes as McCann hits through his prime years is not certain, but as long as he continues to hit like this, I don't think anybody really cares.
I've held the belief for a couple years that McCann is every bit as good as Joe Mauer, and while I hate to pick on the injured, McCann has certainly blown by Mauer this season. The thing is, I would put good money on McCann besting Mauer during their prime years regardless of injuries, anyway.
Don't take for granted what you're watching on a daily basis with McCann. You're watching a potential Hall of Famer at work, and that's something to remember.
A half season is a long way from determining anything, but so far, Brian McCann seems to be entering these years at age 27.
McCann has already posted a 3.2 fWAR, on pace to shatter his previous marks and good for 11th in the National League. That's 11th overall, not for catchers. He is 0.6 wins above the second-best mark for catchers in MLB by Alex Avila and 0.8 wins above the second-best in the National League by Miguel Montero. This while accumulating the second-most games played and most plate appearances by a strict catcher (Carlos Santana plays 1B, as well), meaning more innings logged behind the plate.
McCann's power has returned to 2008 levels, slugging .527 and posting an Isolated Power of .212. Both of these marks are second-best to Avila in MLB, but he leads all catchers in home runs at 14.
However, the big value is coming from his on-base numbers. His .388 OBP matches his career-high set during his rookie campaign in 2006, and his .390 wOBA is second to that year on his career-bests. The big number is a 150 wRC+, which is 13th in all of baseball.
This while posting a second straight season of 10+ BB%. His 10.7% is a little less than the 13.1% last season, but he's maintaining an excellent walk rate while adding more power to last season's totals. This way of combining both and putting it all together is a sign of reaching maturity as a hitter, and McCann seems to be entering that stage. He said it himself during a recent post-game interview when he said he's hitting at a level only reached one other time during his career.
When McCann was first coming up, we all knew what the Braves had. This was no secret among the Braves community, yet it seemed to be a secret held to the Braves community. Even now, McCann's face isn't plastered on video game ads or billboards, and he is still considered underrated by those who don't study baseball. Whether that changes as McCann hits through his prime years is not certain, but as long as he continues to hit like this, I don't think anybody really cares.
I've held the belief for a couple years that McCann is every bit as good as Joe Mauer, and while I hate to pick on the injured, McCann has certainly blown by Mauer this season. The thing is, I would put good money on McCann besting Mauer during their prime years regardless of injuries, anyway.
Don't take for granted what you're watching on a daily basis with McCann. You're watching a potential Hall of Famer at work, and that's something to remember.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Jonny Venters And Reliever Usage
Jonny Venters appeared in his 16th game for the month of June. That's out of 26 games. He has appeared in 46 games and pitched 51 innings. The Braves have played 82 games.
While Fredi Gonzalez has limited Venters' three-day outings (three appearances in three days) to only two so far this season, this doesn't hide the fact that Venters is getting almost no rest. When Venters pitches on consecutive days, whether it's two or three days in a row, he averages a little over one full day of rest. He has pitched on consecutive days 15 times. That means when he pitches two days in a row, more often than not he's back out there after one day of rest, and sometimes he is again pitching on consecutive days, so he ends up throwing four out of five days.
This type of usage has been common for Venters this season, and it's unacceptable for him to have this many innings pitched this early in the season. It's understandable to want arguably the best reliever in baseball on the mound as much as possible, but you have to protect your talent, and Fredi has done nothing to protect this talent.
But perhaps even worse than Venters' amount of usage is how he's being used. Peter at Capitol Avenue Club wrote on this yesterday:
"This is what happens when you manage straight out of the Tony LaRussa handbook. You end up burning your relief aces when you don’t need them and when you actually do they’re unavailable, either because that’s not the (illogically defined) role you’ve assigned them or because they’re worn out from protecting almost already assured victories. Venters is probably unavailable all weekend because he’s pitched six times in the last eight days, four of the appearances coming in spots with leverage indexes under one and three of them being legitimate mop-up situations (pLI’s of 0.53, 0.27, 0.17)."
Venters came in to Wednesday's game having pitched in eight of the past 13 games, including three of the past four. The Braves had a four-run lead against one of the worst offenses in baseball in one of the biggest pitcher's parks in baseball. But Fredi's reason for using Venters is because it was 5-1 instead of 6-1.
I cannot grasp this way of thinking. It makes no sense to me. All I know is, if Fredi continues to think this way about his using of Venters, he will run the guy into the ground and the Braves will either have him at 30% for the stretch run or not at all.
Venters has appeared in 14 games in which the player Leverage Index was below 1. He has appeared in nine games in which the index was between 1 and 1.5. He has appeared in 23 games in which the index was above 1.5. So overall, he's being placed in high leverage situations more often than not, mainly because he isn't relegated to the closer's role like Craig Kimbrel.
The problem, as Peter pointed out, is that Fredi is getting greedy with how Venters is being used. Four of his past six outings have had a pLI below 1, including a 0.17 and 0.27. With as many innings as Venters is seeing, you would think a manager would be able to notice he's being used in unnecessary situations. Unfortunately, it takes a two-run home run for Fredi to notice. This is the type of manager the Braves have.
I often watch Braves games and wonder what Frank Wren and John Schuerholz are thinking as Fredi manages.
While Fredi Gonzalez has limited Venters' three-day outings (three appearances in three days) to only two so far this season, this doesn't hide the fact that Venters is getting almost no rest. When Venters pitches on consecutive days, whether it's two or three days in a row, he averages a little over one full day of rest. He has pitched on consecutive days 15 times. That means when he pitches two days in a row, more often than not he's back out there after one day of rest, and sometimes he is again pitching on consecutive days, so he ends up throwing four out of five days.
This type of usage has been common for Venters this season, and it's unacceptable for him to have this many innings pitched this early in the season. It's understandable to want arguably the best reliever in baseball on the mound as much as possible, but you have to protect your talent, and Fredi has done nothing to protect this talent.
But perhaps even worse than Venters' amount of usage is how he's being used. Peter at Capitol Avenue Club wrote on this yesterday:
"This is what happens when you manage straight out of the Tony LaRussa handbook. You end up burning your relief aces when you don’t need them and when you actually do they’re unavailable, either because that’s not the (illogically defined) role you’ve assigned them or because they’re worn out from protecting almost already assured victories. Venters is probably unavailable all weekend because he’s pitched six times in the last eight days, four of the appearances coming in spots with leverage indexes under one and three of them being legitimate mop-up situations (pLI’s of 0.53, 0.27, 0.17)."
Venters came in to Wednesday's game having pitched in eight of the past 13 games, including three of the past four. The Braves had a four-run lead against one of the worst offenses in baseball in one of the biggest pitcher's parks in baseball. But Fredi's reason for using Venters is because it was 5-1 instead of 6-1.
I cannot grasp this way of thinking. It makes no sense to me. All I know is, if Fredi continues to think this way about his using of Venters, he will run the guy into the ground and the Braves will either have him at 30% for the stretch run or not at all.
Venters has appeared in 14 games in which the player Leverage Index was below 1. He has appeared in nine games in which the index was between 1 and 1.5. He has appeared in 23 games in which the index was above 1.5. So overall, he's being placed in high leverage situations more often than not, mainly because he isn't relegated to the closer's role like Craig Kimbrel.
The problem, as Peter pointed out, is that Fredi is getting greedy with how Venters is being used. Four of his past six outings have had a pLI below 1, including a 0.17 and 0.27. With as many innings as Venters is seeing, you would think a manager would be able to notice he's being used in unnecessary situations. Unfortunately, it takes a two-run home run for Fredi to notice. This is the type of manager the Braves have.
I often watch Braves games and wonder what Frank Wren and John Schuerholz are thinking as Fredi manages.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Jordan Schafer And The Leadoff Spot
Speed blinds people. It also strikes them dumb.
Example A is Jordan Schafer. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Schafer's numbers don't belong at the top of a Major League lineup. Before Sunday, he had a line of .221/.296/.310 with a .277 wOBA and 72 wRC+. After Sunday, despite the RBI double, his OBP dropped to .295.
He has 18 strikeouts this month, and he went on a string of six straight games with at least one strikeout at one point, but that's not the problem here. Plus, I don't care about strikeouts, anyway. The problem is he doesn't get on base. He has three walks in his last 15 starts and five this month. He had 14 in 209 Triple-A plate appearances in 2010. Schafer did walk before last year, but he hasn't shown it since his injury.
Whether this is a trend or just a fluke as he continues to "re-invent" himself as a leadoff hitter, I don't know. But Schafer doesn't deserve the leadoff spot over Nate McLouth as long as this continues. McLouth is walking at a rate of 11.2% with a .337 OBP and .309 wOBA. These aren't mind-blowing numbers, but they are better than Schafer's. Assuming Martin Prado returns to full strength when he is activated, Schafer should take a seat to McLouth, and McLouth should return to the leadoff role.
This is actually difficult for me in some ways because Schafer's defense is much better than McLouth's. However, knowing Schafer would remain in the leadoff spot if he is starting, I feel the best value comes with McLouth in center.
Braves fans find Schafer's eight stolen bases and multiple bunt singles to be sparkly and exciting, but his bat is not helping the Braves.
Example A is Jordan Schafer. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Schafer's numbers don't belong at the top of a Major League lineup. Before Sunday, he had a line of .221/.296/.310 with a .277 wOBA and 72 wRC+. After Sunday, despite the RBI double, his OBP dropped to .295.
He has 18 strikeouts this month, and he went on a string of six straight games with at least one strikeout at one point, but that's not the problem here. Plus, I don't care about strikeouts, anyway. The problem is he doesn't get on base. He has three walks in his last 15 starts and five this month. He had 14 in 209 Triple-A plate appearances in 2010. Schafer did walk before last year, but he hasn't shown it since his injury.
Whether this is a trend or just a fluke as he continues to "re-invent" himself as a leadoff hitter, I don't know. But Schafer doesn't deserve the leadoff spot over Nate McLouth as long as this continues. McLouth is walking at a rate of 11.2% with a .337 OBP and .309 wOBA. These aren't mind-blowing numbers, but they are better than Schafer's. Assuming Martin Prado returns to full strength when he is activated, Schafer should take a seat to McLouth, and McLouth should return to the leadoff role.
This is actually difficult for me in some ways because Schafer's defense is much better than McLouth's. However, knowing Schafer would remain in the leadoff spot if he is starting, I feel the best value comes with McLouth in center.
Braves fans find Schafer's eight stolen bases and multiple bunt singles to be sparkly and exciting, but his bat is not helping the Braves.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Arodys Vizcaino's Stuff As A Starter
In his latest work, Mike Newman at Scouting the Sally has some stuff on Braves pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. It's certainly worth a click to read in full, but it includes this:
"A scout I spoke to recently mentioned Vizcaino looked like a reliever early on in a recent start, but his breaking ball grew on the scout to the point where his mind was changed by the end of the outing. With seasons evaluators now believing Vizcaino can stick in the rotation, his prospect status has certainly increased."
Vizcaino's injury history and mechanics say otherwise to me, but knowing that his stuff can project as a starter to a scout is pretty big. At this point, I'm sort of on the fence as to whether he will remain a starter, but his potential as a reliever is so huge, it's impossible to ignore.
After posting a 2.45 ERA and 37/10 K/BB in 40.1 IP at Class-A+ Lynchburg, Vizcaino has thrown 25.2 innings for Double-A Mississippi, posting a 3.51 ERA and 27/8 K/BB.
"A scout I spoke to recently mentioned Vizcaino looked like a reliever early on in a recent start, but his breaking ball grew on the scout to the point where his mind was changed by the end of the outing. With seasons evaluators now believing Vizcaino can stick in the rotation, his prospect status has certainly increased."
Vizcaino's injury history and mechanics say otherwise to me, but knowing that his stuff can project as a starter to a scout is pretty big. At this point, I'm sort of on the fence as to whether he will remain a starter, but his potential as a reliever is so huge, it's impossible to ignore.
After posting a 2.45 ERA and 37/10 K/BB in 40.1 IP at Class-A+ Lynchburg, Vizcaino has thrown 25.2 innings for Double-A Mississippi, posting a 3.51 ERA and 27/8 K/BB.
Bring Back The Selective Braves Offense
Make no mistake the Braves offense is much worse than it was last year.
2010:
.258/.339/.401, 10.1 BB%, 20.9 K%, .143 ISO, .301 BABIP, .327 wOBA, 101 wRC+
2011:
.238/.305/.385, 8.5 BB%, 22.4 K%, .147 ISO, .276 BABIP, .304 wOBA, 89 wRC+
The difference in on-base ability is the focal point. They aren't walking at nearly the same rate and the OBP is down considerably, which has led to worse numbers across the board.
And no, aggressiveness is not paying off. Last season, the Braves had a line drive rate of 18.7%. This season, it's 17.1%. Why? In 2010, the offense swung at pitches out the zone 27.5% of the time, the best number in the National League. This year, the number is 30%, good for eighth. You swing at more pitches out of the zone, you end up with fewer line drives. And it's not like the aggressiveness is paying off on pitches in the zone. The Braves' contact rate is down by one percent.
I'm not one to blame the coaching staff for everything. In the end, the players make their own results. However, an offense that is carrying the majority of the same players doesn't lose the ability to post the best walk rate in the league without something factoring in.
O-Swing% (2010, 2011):
Alex Gonzalez: 40.9%, 45%
Eric Hinske: 31.2%, 33.8%
Brian McCann: 30.2%, 31.2%
Martin Prado: 26.1%, 28.4%
Jason Heyward: 24.2%, 28.1%
Dan Uggla: 22.7%, 27.9%
Chipper Jones: 21.2%, 22.1%
Nate McLouth: 21.1%, 21.6%
I find it difficult to believe this has nothing to do with having Larry Parrish as the hitting coach.
"That’s the way we’ve been hitting most of the year. If you look at our stats over the course of the year, we’re not where we want to be offensively as a team, as a club." -Fredi Gonzalez, per the AJC.
Does this mean anything? One can only hope so.
2010:
.258/.339/.401, 10.1 BB%, 20.9 K%, .143 ISO, .301 BABIP, .327 wOBA, 101 wRC+
2011:
.238/.305/.385, 8.5 BB%, 22.4 K%, .147 ISO, .276 BABIP, .304 wOBA, 89 wRC+
The difference in on-base ability is the focal point. They aren't walking at nearly the same rate and the OBP is down considerably, which has led to worse numbers across the board.
And no, aggressiveness is not paying off. Last season, the Braves had a line drive rate of 18.7%. This season, it's 17.1%. Why? In 2010, the offense swung at pitches out the zone 27.5% of the time, the best number in the National League. This year, the number is 30%, good for eighth. You swing at more pitches out of the zone, you end up with fewer line drives. And it's not like the aggressiveness is paying off on pitches in the zone. The Braves' contact rate is down by one percent.
I'm not one to blame the coaching staff for everything. In the end, the players make their own results. However, an offense that is carrying the majority of the same players doesn't lose the ability to post the best walk rate in the league without something factoring in.
O-Swing% (2010, 2011):
Alex Gonzalez: 40.9%, 45%
Eric Hinske: 31.2%, 33.8%
Brian McCann: 30.2%, 31.2%
Martin Prado: 26.1%, 28.4%
Jason Heyward: 24.2%, 28.1%
Dan Uggla: 22.7%, 27.9%
Chipper Jones: 21.2%, 22.1%
Nate McLouth: 21.1%, 21.6%
I find it difficult to believe this has nothing to do with having Larry Parrish as the hitting coach.
"That’s the way we’ve been hitting most of the year. If you look at our stats over the course of the year, we’re not where we want to be offensively as a team, as a club." -Fredi Gonzalez, per the AJC.
Does this mean anything? One can only hope so.
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