AFL Rising Stars Showcase Recap

I have been looking forward to the Rising Stars Showcase all week because it is the first time I've seen Mike Minor, Craig Kimbrel, and Brandon Hicks in action. All three are big prospects for the Braves, so it was a big night for the organization. However, it turned sour pretty quickly.

Mike Minor: 0.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 6 ER, BB, HR
Before beginning, it is worth noting that Minor started this game, so it isn't like he came in for relief and couldn't finish the inning. I don't know if he was only meant to pitch one inning (Tommy Mendoza only went one for the other side but he allowed two runs), but he was given plenty of chances to escape his trouble in the first and couldn't do it.

Minor was consistently living up in the zone and he doesn't have the stuff to get away with it. It's obvious he relies on location. He is a balanced pitcher with no highlight pitch, yet no glaring weakness. At first glance he doesn't look like a first rounder, but Minor knows how to pitch, and you could see that even when he was giving up seven runs. He didn't have his stuff tonight, yet he gutted it out and tried to pitch around the zone. But not being able to rebound shows he has a ways to go.

Also worth noting is the one unearned run was on an error by Minor in which he threw away a pickoff throw and it scored a run.

Brandon Hicks: 0-2, K
Hicks showed his defensive skills with a couple good plays at shortstop. He struck out on a nasty fastball in his first at bat and grounded out to third in his second at bat.

Craig Kimbrel: (SV), 1 IP, BB, K
Kimbrel showed exactly what he does, walking the leadoff batter and throwing a ton of pitches, including a wild pitch, before shutting the door for the save. It was pretty exciting to see him in the situation he was made for. Kimbrel's stuff is insanely good and he has the closer demeanor on the mound. I just hope he can work on cutting down on the walks. He racks up plenty of strikeouts and doesn't give up hits or homers.

On a side note, Reds prospects Chris Heisey and Yonder Alonso combined for five hits, a homer, and four RBI. Indians prospect Matt McBride hit the game-winning home run for the West in the eighth, finally taking Minor off the hook. Reds prospect Mike Leake struck out the side in a scoreless inning. Rangers prospect Tanner Scheppers won the radar gun award with 99 MPH, pitching a perfect inning.

Following Up the Hardy/Gomez Trade

The Twins finally got something of value from the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade. However, it's not coming from Carlos Gomez's bat.

Gomez was ranked as high as third on the prospect list for the Mets and was very valuable at the time of the trade in January of 2008. But it was based on pure tools and athletic ability. Gomez has had to deal with the unfortunate challenge of being at least two years ahead of a normal minor leaguer's schedule. His two full seasons in A+ and AA compiled a .340 OBP at the ages of 19 and 20. He actually produced good numbers as a 20-year-old in AA, going .281/.349/.423. The knock was his high strikeout rates and lack of walks (27 BB, 97 K in AA), which combined with his lack of power meant not a lot of room for error as a leadoff hitter.

Despite these rates staying relatively the same, Gomez continued to move up the ladder to remain ahead of the average age. He hit AAA as a 21-year-old and only saw 140 at bats before getting the call up to New York (for some reason his numbers in those 140 at bats were the best he had as a minor leaguer; perhaps a fluke, perhaps the reason for his call up, perhaps the reason being he was showcased). He hit .232/.288/.304 in 125 at bats, with a BB/K ratio of 8/27.

So what happens after that? He gets traded to Minnesota in a deal based purely on his potential. Since he was the centerpiece of the deal, he was naturally shoved into the starting job as a 22-year-old. The line in 2008: .258/.296/.360, 25 BB, 142 K. What exactly did the Twins expect?

As an answer to that season, the Twins put him back out there for another season. The line in 2009: .229/.287/.337, 22 BB, 72 K in 262 less at bats. I have to think some of the drop may be due to not playing as regularly, but the rates are still there. What exactly did the Twins expect?

Minnesota did not handle Gomez well and it may cost him. The one good part of it all is he's only 23 and has major league experience. He has time to develop into a solid CF/leadoff hitter, but the Brewers will have to be patient and live through the growing pains. Only time will tell whether he breaks through.

J.J. Hardy will be a welcomed addition for the Twins. He should settle somewhere around 2007's numbers (.277/.323/.463, 26 HR, 80 RBI, 40 BB, 73 K), which is something the Twins could use from a position that has historically been weak. For the Twins, this deal has absolutely no potential to backfire because Hardy is automatic value for the team, and even if Gomez develops into a top-tier leadoff hitter, his value can only equal to that of Hardy's. And even that is of opinion.

Morning Buzz: 11/6

It's the weekend. Recap of the AFL will appear tonight. Recap of Minor's Rising Stars start will appear tomorrow night.

1. The Phillies picked up Cliff Lee's option. It's worth $9 million. Lee threw the most innings of his career this year and he's historically answered a good year with a not so good one. The Phillies are looking to lock Lee up as well.

2. The Twins and Brewers agreed to a trade sending J.J. Hardy to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez. It appears to be a good deal for both sides. Hardy will provide offense at a position the Twins haven't had in over a decade. Gomez to the Brewers means Escobar at shortstop and Cameron leaving Milwaukee. Dealing for Gomez is based purely on potential.

3. The Diamondbacks have exercised the option on Brandon Webb, worth $8.5 million. Webb declined talks to negotiate an extension due to him having shoulder surgery. I don't blame him wanting to see how he responds to the surgery before having those talks.

4. Seventy-nine players filed for free agency yesterday. Four of them are Braves: Mike Gonzalez, Adam LaRoche, Garret Anderson (yay!), and Greg Norton. The article also says John Smoltz filed.

5. Mark Bradley tries to lose all credibility by suggesting moving Tommy Hanson to closer. Good one.

Braves AFL Update: 11/6

An update of the AFL Braves. I'll link some stuff on Minor's performance tomorrow.

Mike Minor: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 9 K, .279 BAA
Minor seems to struggle early on, but works out of trouble very well and settles down before leaving. He's given up 12 hits and five walks but only three earned runs. His BAA with runners in scoring position is .154. His BAA with runners on is .250.

Lee Hyde: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 9 K, .207 BAA
Hyde has created a buzz with his solid AFL campaign. All three runs he has allowed came in one outing on October 23rd. If you take that outing out, he has pitched seven shutout innings on five hits, two walks and eight strikeouts. His BAA with runners on is .167. In scoring position: .125.

Craig Kimbrel: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 9 K, .160 BAA
Cut down on those walks and you're good to go. Kimbrel has allowed all three runs against lefties but eight of his nine strikeouts were against lefties. It's obvious walks are the only thing preventing him from becoming a sure fire closer candidate, and he's not going to get away with it when he gets called up.

Jeff Lyman: 9.1 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 8 K, .297 BAA
Take away one outing and Lyman's numbers aren't that bad. Five of the seven runs came in one outing in which he allowed two homers and walked three in one-third of an inning. His last five innings have been scoreless and he has only walked one.

Freddie Freeman: .286/.362/.429/.790, HR, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 13 K
Freeman has been on a tear since October 23rd, reaching base by a base hit in six straight games, including four multi-hit games. It took him a little while to get going but once he did he showed what he's capable of. I can't wait to see how he handles AA the second time around.

Brandon Hicks: .315/.413/.370/.783, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 8 BB, 8 K
Hicks has done pretty much the opposite of what he's known to do. He has gotten on base at a very good rate, is walking, and is keeping his strikeouts down. However, he hasn't shown any pop, recording one double and one triple with no homers. This isn't the most important thing if he remains at shortstop, but a third baseman needs the power. Either way it's exciting to see Hicks getting on base.

Morning Buzz: 11/5

1. 151 days until Opening Day.

2. My prediction came true: Yankees in 6. While I'm on a roll, lets go ahead and say Braves in 4 in 2010.

3. The deal is complete for Tim Hudson. It's supposedly three years at $9 million/year. The contract probably won't be announced until early next week due to Hudson needing an MRI on his elbow and he'll be at a charity event all weekend.

4. Jorge Says No analyzes the potential Mark Teahen deal that is on the table. The deal doesn't do much for either team. You know what you're getting in Teahen: a not so good OBP with decent power = below average. Getz has speed and the potential to get on base at a good rate, but he hasn't showed it yet. Fields was once a top prospect and hit 23 homers in 2007, but he has yet to establish himself as an everyday player. I think the Royals end of the deal has much more potential, but all three players are on the wrong side of 25 and none have established themselves.

5. There's no way in hell the Braves will agree to trade Javier Vazquez for Dan Uggla. And I say that with 80% confidence.

Braves Sign Scott Proctor

The Braves have signed Scott Proctor. The reliever is coming off TJ surgery and will need a month or so in the minors before he sees time in Atlanta. Proctor was a solid reliever for the Yankees before the surgery, including a 3.52 ERA in 83 games in 2006.

It's not surprising to see a signing like this for the Braves and it probably won't be the last. You either go the route of signing a big name or two to replace Soriano and Gonzalez, or you stockpile at a cheap rate. Because of this, it's probably worth noting that the Cardinals released Brad Thompson today. Thompson is a decent spot starter, though he hasn't had an ERA below four since 2006. The good thing with him is he's still 28.

Morning Buzz: 11/3

5. Danny Knobler points out that the Phillies made the right decision in trading for Cliff Lee instead of Roy Halladay. Damon's quotes strike me as funny in that he wishes the Yankees were able to pick up Lee. Sabathia, Lee, Burnett, and Pettitte = probably twice as much as the entire Marlins payroll.

4. The Hardball Times have announced their new 2010 annual. As you probably already know, the Bill James Handbook was released a couple days ago.

3. The Sporting News speaks of Chase Utley's record-tying five World Series homers. One guy is keeping his team in the series with record-tying homers, and the guy right below him in the lineup is trying to knock his team out of the series with record-tying strikeout numbers.

2. Cole Hamels tries to redeem himself by meeting with Charlie Manuel and saying he wants the ball in a possible Game 7. I would take my chances with Happ, but Hamels would probably get the call.

1. Frank Wren has has denied reports that the Braves are interested in Aroldis Chapman. Doesn't really make sense anyway with the payroll situation, though it would always be nice to have a 21-year-old throwing 100 MPH in your rotation.

Ben Badler tweets that Mike Minor will get the start in the Rising Stars game. It's this Saturday at 8:00 on MLB Network.

Baseball America gives us their Top 10 Braves Prospect List for 2010. Mine will probably end up closer to John Sickels', though you can't go wrong with either one. I like how Mike Minor is ahead of Craig Kimbrel. You won't see that often.

Morning Buzz: 11/2

5. MLBTR posts their trade market for left fielders. This should be a guideline for the Braves. Carlos Lee, Josh Willingham, and Adam Dunn could be high on the list. Luke Scott and Matt Murton could be low-cost alternatives.

4. Keith Law reports on Insider that the bidding as begun for Aroldis Chapman. I don't know that it says so this is only for those who actually pay to read their stuff. But it's nice to know they're getting somewhere with the negotiations. Should have more stuff coming in soon.

3. Shysterball recaps the Damon double steal from Game 4. I didn't realize Calcaterra had picked the Yankees in 6, as did I, but I guess that's a pretty popular prediction. It's looking pretty good at the moment.

2. The 700 Level asks a question that should be on every Phillies fan's mind: can Cole Hamels perform in Game 7 if needed? It's shaping up to a potential Hamels start, which is something that should have Phillies fans worried.

1. Burnett vs. Lee? Yeah, I'm going with Lee on that one. Even though I mentioned Burnett isn't as bad as people make him out to be, Lee obviously has the edge.

Responding to the MLBTR Outlook

I'm sure most of you have already read the offseason outlook on MLBTR, but Capitol Avenue Club has posted an analysis post based on it.

• The Braves have approx. $20 million for a 1B and OF.
• Kelly Johnson should be trade bait for a reliever.
• 1B options: LaRoche, Nick Johnson, and maybe even Glaus.
• OF FA market isn't suitable for the Braves.
• Kawakami may be dealt and the extra money used for a reliever.

First of all, I completely agree that Kelly should be used as trade bait. This has been mentioned since he officially lost his job to Prado. The purpose of the trade is debatable. Whether he should be traded straight up for a reliever, or packaged for a hitter is the question. A good package in my opinion would involve Kawakami and Johnson. The type of return would depend on the prospect(s) the Braves would be willing to add, and whether it would even be worth the bat they would get in return.

If the Braves are able to sign the bigger name free agent, such as Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, it would more than likely mean a lesser first baseman. Troy Glaus is a name that intrigued me. It was just two years ago that he had a solid season with the Cardinals and he's only turning 33. A combo of Holliday/Glaus has much greater potential than, say, a Hardy/LaRoche.

The problem with the free agent outfielders is what I've already mentioned. There's Bay and Holliday, and after that nothing worth going after. That means plenty of suitors.

Whether it'd be better for the team to dip into the free agency pool or take advantage of the pitching surplus to find their bat, I don't know. There's not many options in free agency this year so it might be a busy offseason for Frank Wren. Keep those phone lines open.

Also, I'm reading several articles stating Javier Vazquez is the best candidate to get traded. While I can understand them thinking that because he would bring the most in return and his contract is up at the end of the year, I don't see it happening. The Braves have the opportunity to have one of the best rotations in the team's history, and dealing Vazquez would change things dramatically. That's why Kawakami seems like the obvious choice. He's the odd man out.