Thursday, October 8, 2009

Final Grades: Infield

The infield for the Braves has been a strong point for several years now, and it was expected to continue that way this season. Despite a little shuffling the infield stayed true to its solid hitting and well rounded defense.

While the left side remained intact all season, the right side of the infield went through some overhauls as the season progressed. The opening day duo of Kelly Johnson and Casey Kotchman failed to hold their jobs in Atlanta past the trading deadline, as Johnson was benched and Kotchman was dealt to Boston for Adam LaRoche. But their misfortune led to the emergence of a promising second baseman and a true power threat for the Braves.

Brian McCann: (B-)
"As long as he remains healthy, McCann will continue to be the model of what every team wants in a catcher. Reaching 30 home runs and 100 RBI is not out of the possibility."

I am completely justified in my prediction of McCann (says me). The guy played the entire season half blind and always tired, yet still managed 94 RBIs and a .834 OPS. It was pretty evident he wore down over the last couple months, constantly fouling good pitches back and producing a lot of pop ups to third base. I think with a good set of eyes he can still go 30/100, but it's not something I will ever expect from a catcher. McCann has fully taken the role of team leader in waiting behind Chipper Jones, now that Jeff Francoeur is gone, and I wouldn't want it to be anybody else. With rest and eye surgery, I expect a much better McCann next year.

David Ross: (B+)
"The Georgia-native has had solid numbers in his career and is a more reliable option on McCann’s days off."

I was impressed by David Ross in his first season as a Brave. He has some serious power and has an incredible eye for a backup catcher, walking 21 times and posting a .888 OPS. Not only can he hit, Ross is a really good guy in the clubhouse and knows how to handle pitchers. It's not bad to have on the resume that you caught Tommy Hanson's first game. Ross will be back next season and hopefully beyond that as well.

Adam LaRoche: (B+)
The trade that brought Adam LaRoche to Atlanta confused people because many stated it to be a deal that wouldn't improve either team. But the meaning of the trade was to bring power to the Braves lineup, and LaRoche did just that. He hit 12 homers and drove in 40 in 212 at bats, and while many complained of his lack of getting on base, he posted a .401 OBP as a Brave. LaRoche had exactly 12 homers and 40 RBIs for the Braves and Pirates in 2009, but the difference was a .770 OPS for the Pirates and a .958 mark for the Braves. His contract is up, and with no apparent successor, it's important to have him back in Atlanta next year. While there's a good chance the Braves will deal for or sign a power bat, LaRoche is a very valuable bat for the price.

Martin Prado: (B+)
The guy can just hit. The constant .300 average is nice, the .822 OPS is pretty, the 38 doubles and 11 homers is impressive, but the thing that sold me on Prado's ability is he never slowed down at any point during the season. He maintained an average from .290 to .320 all season long, and that solidifies him as a real starter in my book. Continuing to work on extra base hits, walking a little more, and developing some speed should be his focus for next season. One more thing to look for is how Prado handles knowing that he's the everyday guy now.

Kelly Johnson: (F)
"Now with two full seasons under his belt, Johnson is the focus of many as a player to watch in 2009. If he can cut down on strikeouts and develop more power, he will be ranked near the top of the league at his position."

I will never know why I ever sold myself on Kelly Johnson. I've never liked him as a player but continued to believe that he could develop into a good hitter. He made me look bad, so there's no turning back on this now. Plate discipline and a good eye are supposed to be Johnson's favorable qualities, but he struck out 54 times and had a .692 OPS in 303 at bats. He has a power stroke but never hits home runs. And don't get me started on his defense. While he should be entering his prime years, Johnson is now hoping for a job. I hope it's not with the Braves next year.

Omar Infante: (B+)
It's hard to judge a hitter coming off an injury like Infante's, but he did well when he returned. He hit .305 and his power numbers didn't really go down, and perhaps the most notable stat is 19 walks compared to 22 last season (in over 100 fewer at bats this year). I think a full season and full health will show Infante's true ability, which is something similar to Prado in my opinion. It's nice to have both of them on the team.

Brooks Conrad: (B-)
I was thoroughly impressed with Brooks Conrad in July. He hit .344 for the month, including a homer and three RBIs in his first game. He just looks like he knows how to hit. He did strike out 14 times and walked three times but he showed discipline early on. Coming off the bench didn't do him any good in September and October, however. I think Conrad can be a solid backup but he doesn't have the versatility to be a utility guy.

Yunel Escobar: (B+)
"Escobar will only get better. A 100 RBI season is not an unrealistic prediction if put toward the middle of the order. But the lack of a leadoff hitter may prevent that."

He may appear dumb and annoying, but Yunel Escobar is one of the best shortstops in the game. He hit 14 homers, had 26 doubles, drove in 76, walked 57 times to only 62 strikeouts, and maintained a .812 OPS despite a less than stellar SLG. If there was one thing Escobar could work on, it'd be getting more doubles. Cox finally realized he belongs in the fifth or sixth spot in the order, and he thrived when he moved there. He's one of the best in the game with runners in scoring position and I still firmly believe he can drive in 90+ runs. Escobar will hopefully be around for a while (he's entering his prime soon) and with Cox retiring next year, it can only help him stay on the field more often.

Diory Hernandez, Greg Norton: (F)
Neither can hit. One will be a AAAA player his whole career and the other is about to end his career.

Chipper Jones: (B-)
"A season of 130 games and a .330 average is all that needs to be expected from him."

By golly Chipper Jones, you can't hit anymore. He still had a normal season as far as walks goes (101), but he had career lows in almost every category, and hasn't had 89 strikeouts since 2004. The .818 OPS was the lowest since his rookie year. While that's still a decent OPS, it's not a Chipper OPS, and when it's not a Chipper OPS, it's dragging the whole offense down. The Braves cannot afford 18 home runs and 71 RBIs from the third spot, no matter who it is. Another season of this and I believe Chipper really would retire. It'd be in everybody's best interest anyway. But in no way am I counting him out yet.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Final Grades: Bullpen

My second edition of final grades focuses on the bullpen.

Not much changed from last season's pen. I had predicted far fewer innings for the pen this season due to the changes in the rotation, picking up innings eaters in Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe. But the core group (Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and Peter Moylan) pitched a total of 223 innings. Moylan led the group with 87 appearances, though all three were in the top ten in the league in appearances. Not even stopping there, because Eric O' Flaherty appeared in 78 games, though many of them were just to a single lefty.


The load took a toll on Soriano and Gonzalez, who both have a tough time making it through a full season with a full workload. Even still, both remained one of the top late-inning tandems in the game for 2009. Only two of the main relievers in the pen had an ERA above three, and only one of those was above four. O' Flaherty finished at 3.04 and Kris Medlen finished at 4.26, though I wouldn't consider Medlen a true bullpen regular no matter how bad Bobby Cox wants him to be.

Rafael Soriano: (A)
"With the loss of Will Ohman, Soriano will be depended on even more in setting up for Gonzalez."

My statement from my preview shows how the closer situation played out over the year. Gonzalez started the season as the closer but gradually lost out to Soriano, who continued to be lights out in the eighth inning while Gonzalez repeatedly caused heart attacks in the ninth. Soriano never looked back as closer, recording 27 saves and an incredible 102 strikeouts. His shoulder wore down over the stretch run but apart from just a couple meltdowns you could never really tell. If you compare Soriano and Gonzalez, I would say both are equally risky as far as health goes, but Soriano has much more upside. He's the true closer of the two.

Mike Gonzalez: (B+)
"With his first full season in Atlanta in his sights, Gonzalez is expected to return to the form that made him a dominating reliever in Pittsburgh."

Watching Gonzalez over a full season and never looking at his stats, you would swear his ERA was in the fours and he had ten losses. But somehow he ended up at 2.42 and was 5-4, recording ten saves. Gonzalez was shaky as closer and lost the job (probably more because of Soriano's pitching than his own troubles, though both affected it), but he did well when out of the spotlight setting up Soriano. Gonzalez's K/BB was 2.73, while Soriano's was 3.78. His number one enemy was wildness, which seemed to trouble him in tight spots. But you can't really get on a guy too much when he leads the team in ERA. He's a solid setup man but replaceable.

Peter Moylan: (A)
"If he can maintain good health he will be one of the best seventh-inning relievers in the game."

Got one right for a change. Moylan was arguably the MVP of the entire team. The Braves would not have won nearly as many games as they did without his constantly bailing out the previous pitcher with double play after double play. It got to the point where you automatically expected the double play when he came in. Moylan did walk 35 and gave up a good many hits but did his job every night, which was pitch a scoreless seventh or induce the double play. I expect him to hang around a while.

Eric O' Flaherty: (B+)
O' Flaherty and Boone Logan were both brought in to duel for the lefty spot in the pen. I figured Logan would take the spot out of spring but O' Flaherty was given the job, and he surprised many with a solid season. He held lefties to a .215 BAA and .557 OPS against, and showed that he is capable of being a full inning reliever by not allowing a single homer to righties in 103 at bats, and only a .301 SLG against righties. Cox showed his confidence in O' Flaherty by allowing him to face pretty much the same number of righties as lefties, and he did a good job. I would not be surprised at all if he takes the seventh inning spot if Moylan is moved to setup.

Kris Medlen: (B-)
I don't like to even mention Medlen because he shouldn't be in the pen, but in any case he had 33 appearances as a reliever so it must be done. Medlen started shaky as a starter and was moved to the pen as a long reliever, where he hardly ever saw action until he began to shut down opposing teams with regularity and got more appearances. It got to the point where Cox had Medlen in tough spots late in games, and it eventually backfired when he had a meltdown and it led to more. Medlen doesn't really seem to have the mentality of a reliever and one bad game always bites him in another. He's best suited as a starter but won't get that chance with the Braves. If they keep him around in the pen next season he may never get the chance to start again, and it looks like that might be the case.

Boone Logan: (C-)
Logan really isn't as good as I thought he'd be. He threw 17 innings for the Braves and gave up ten earned runs on 21 hits. If O' Flaherty is moved to a late-inning role he might get a chance to earn a spot on the team, but that's really his only chance. Logan is 25 so he's still young, especially for a reliever. You never really know how his time in Atlanta will play out.

Manny Acosta: (F)
I might blow my lid if I'm forced to recall Manny Acosta's time in Atlanta, so I'm not going to. All I will say is hopefully the Braves have finally realized he won't become a successful late inning reliever.

Buddy Carlyle:
I can't give Buddy a grade because he went through something that can't be helped this season in being diagnosed with diabetes. His terrible ERA is due to bad outings early in the season before he realized what was wrong with him. He paid his dues with a long rehab and made two appearances before the season ended. If Buddy is brought back he will have to fight for a long relief role.