Following Up the Hardy/Gomez Trade

The Twins finally got something of value from the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade. However, it's not coming from Carlos Gomez's bat.

Gomez was ranked as high as third on the prospect list for the Mets and was very valuable at the time of the trade in January of 2008. But it was based on pure tools and athletic ability. Gomez has had to deal with the unfortunate challenge of being at least two years ahead of a normal minor leaguer's schedule. His two full seasons in A+ and AA compiled a .340 OBP at the ages of 19 and 20. He actually produced good numbers as a 20-year-old in AA, going .281/.349/.423. The knock was his high strikeout rates and lack of walks (27 BB, 97 K in AA), which combined with his lack of power meant not a lot of room for error as a leadoff hitter.

Despite these rates staying relatively the same, Gomez continued to move up the ladder to remain ahead of the average age. He hit AAA as a 21-year-old and only saw 140 at bats before getting the call up to New York (for some reason his numbers in those 140 at bats were the best he had as a minor leaguer; perhaps a fluke, perhaps the reason for his call up, perhaps the reason being he was showcased). He hit .232/.288/.304 in 125 at bats, with a BB/K ratio of 8/27.

So what happens after that? He gets traded to Minnesota in a deal based purely on his potential. Since he was the centerpiece of the deal, he was naturally shoved into the starting job as a 22-year-old. The line in 2008: .258/.296/.360, 25 BB, 142 K. What exactly did the Twins expect?

As an answer to that season, the Twins put him back out there for another season. The line in 2009: .229/.287/.337, 22 BB, 72 K in 262 less at bats. I have to think some of the drop may be due to not playing as regularly, but the rates are still there. What exactly did the Twins expect?

Minnesota did not handle Gomez well and it may cost him. The one good part of it all is he's only 23 and has major league experience. He has time to develop into a solid CF/leadoff hitter, but the Brewers will have to be patient and live through the growing pains. Only time will tell whether he breaks through.

J.J. Hardy will be a welcomed addition for the Twins. He should settle somewhere around 2007's numbers (.277/.323/.463, 26 HR, 80 RBI, 40 BB, 73 K), which is something the Twins could use from a position that has historically been weak. For the Twins, this deal has absolutely no potential to backfire because Hardy is automatic value for the team, and even if Gomez develops into a top-tier leadoff hitter, his value can only equal to that of Hardy's. And even that is of opinion.