Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Final Grades: Bullpen

My second edition of final grades focuses on the bullpen.

Not much changed from last season's pen. I had predicted far fewer innings for the pen this season due to the changes in the rotation, picking up innings eaters in Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe. But the core group (Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and Peter Moylan) pitched a total of 223 innings. Moylan led the group with 87 appearances, though all three were in the top ten in the league in appearances. Not even stopping there, because Eric O' Flaherty appeared in 78 games, though many of them were just to a single lefty.


The load took a toll on Soriano and Gonzalez, who both have a tough time making it through a full season with a full workload. Even still, both remained one of the top late-inning tandems in the game for 2009. Only two of the main relievers in the pen had an ERA above three, and only one of those was above four. O' Flaherty finished at 3.04 and Kris Medlen finished at 4.26, though I wouldn't consider Medlen a true bullpen regular no matter how bad Bobby Cox wants him to be.

Rafael Soriano: (A)
"With the loss of Will Ohman, Soriano will be depended on even more in setting up for Gonzalez."

My statement from my preview shows how the closer situation played out over the year. Gonzalez started the season as the closer but gradually lost out to Soriano, who continued to be lights out in the eighth inning while Gonzalez repeatedly caused heart attacks in the ninth. Soriano never looked back as closer, recording 27 saves and an incredible 102 strikeouts. His shoulder wore down over the stretch run but apart from just a couple meltdowns you could never really tell. If you compare Soriano and Gonzalez, I would say both are equally risky as far as health goes, but Soriano has much more upside. He's the true closer of the two.

Mike Gonzalez: (B+)
"With his first full season in Atlanta in his sights, Gonzalez is expected to return to the form that made him a dominating reliever in Pittsburgh."

Watching Gonzalez over a full season and never looking at his stats, you would swear his ERA was in the fours and he had ten losses. But somehow he ended up at 2.42 and was 5-4, recording ten saves. Gonzalez was shaky as closer and lost the job (probably more because of Soriano's pitching than his own troubles, though both affected it), but he did well when out of the spotlight setting up Soriano. Gonzalez's K/BB was 2.73, while Soriano's was 3.78. His number one enemy was wildness, which seemed to trouble him in tight spots. But you can't really get on a guy too much when he leads the team in ERA. He's a solid setup man but replaceable.

Peter Moylan: (A)
"If he can maintain good health he will be one of the best seventh-inning relievers in the game."

Got one right for a change. Moylan was arguably the MVP of the entire team. The Braves would not have won nearly as many games as they did without his constantly bailing out the previous pitcher with double play after double play. It got to the point where you automatically expected the double play when he came in. Moylan did walk 35 and gave up a good many hits but did his job every night, which was pitch a scoreless seventh or induce the double play. I expect him to hang around a while.

Eric O' Flaherty: (B+)
O' Flaherty and Boone Logan were both brought in to duel for the lefty spot in the pen. I figured Logan would take the spot out of spring but O' Flaherty was given the job, and he surprised many with a solid season. He held lefties to a .215 BAA and .557 OPS against, and showed that he is capable of being a full inning reliever by not allowing a single homer to righties in 103 at bats, and only a .301 SLG against righties. Cox showed his confidence in O' Flaherty by allowing him to face pretty much the same number of righties as lefties, and he did a good job. I would not be surprised at all if he takes the seventh inning spot if Moylan is moved to setup.

Kris Medlen: (B-)
I don't like to even mention Medlen because he shouldn't be in the pen, but in any case he had 33 appearances as a reliever so it must be done. Medlen started shaky as a starter and was moved to the pen as a long reliever, where he hardly ever saw action until he began to shut down opposing teams with regularity and got more appearances. It got to the point where Cox had Medlen in tough spots late in games, and it eventually backfired when he had a meltdown and it led to more. Medlen doesn't really seem to have the mentality of a reliever and one bad game always bites him in another. He's best suited as a starter but won't get that chance with the Braves. If they keep him around in the pen next season he may never get the chance to start again, and it looks like that might be the case.

Boone Logan: (C-)
Logan really isn't as good as I thought he'd be. He threw 17 innings for the Braves and gave up ten earned runs on 21 hits. If O' Flaherty is moved to a late-inning role he might get a chance to earn a spot on the team, but that's really his only chance. Logan is 25 so he's still young, especially for a reliever. You never really know how his time in Atlanta will play out.

Manny Acosta: (F)
I might blow my lid if I'm forced to recall Manny Acosta's time in Atlanta, so I'm not going to. All I will say is hopefully the Braves have finally realized he won't become a successful late inning reliever.

Buddy Carlyle:
I can't give Buddy a grade because he went through something that can't be helped this season in being diagnosed with diabetes. His terrible ERA is due to bad outings early in the season before he realized what was wrong with him. He paid his dues with a long rehab and made two appearances before the season ended. If Buddy is brought back he will have to fight for a long relief role.

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